Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
