It was 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
